The 11 most underrated NBA free agents: Potential steals
— -- Who are the underrated free agents who will be available to NBA teams starting Friday?
We have 11 names for teams (and fans) to consider.
That's why the more realistic move is to snatch up players who are better than most people realize. Such players often lack gaudy box score statistics, but they do the little things that help their teams win. Uncovering these hidden gems can be vital to a team's success, as Portland demonstrated last summer with its value signings of Al-Farouq Aminu and Ed Davis, key contributors to the team's unexpected playoff run.
How to spot potential free-agent deals? We're using real plus-minus (RPM), an advanced metric that estimates the impact of each player on his team's performance, adjusting for the impact of all teammates and opponents. It's a metric ideally suited to finding high-impact players who might otherwise fly under the radar with their more pedestrian box score stats.
Big men who do the little things
Spurned and burned by DeAndre Jordan last summer, the Dallas Mavericks turned to Zaza Pachulia to fill their void at center. Although his RPM impact of 1.55 fell short of Jordan's gaudy 4.40 value in 2015-16, Pachulia came at a bargain price tag of $5.2 million. That's about one-fourth of what DeAndre made last season.
Just two weeks into the season, Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle realized he had gotten a steal: "He is a lot better than I thought." But anyone who took seriously Pachulia's RPM impact numbers in 2014-15 already knew he was good. The Bucks, one of the surprise teams in 2014-15, can attest to the big man's impact as well. They won eight fewer games after Pachulia's departure, and dropped from fourth to 23rd league-wide in defensive efficiency.
Pachulia emerged as a rebounding machine in Dallas, where he grabbed almost 13 rebounds per 36 minutes -- 10th in the league. He boasted a solid true shooting percentage of 55 percent. Notably, Pachulia also made 77 percent of his free throws, which allowed his coach to leave him on the floor at the end of close games. His steals have taken a bit of a dip in recent years, but he still ranked 11th among all centers.
The unheralded big man also brings some nice intangibles. Thanks to a strong base and wide body, for example, he sets some of the NBA's best screens.
Pachulia might not be among the NBA's elite centers, but there's little doubt that he is a positive contributor. If his price tag doesn't more than double this summer, he will once again be among the steals of the offseason.
Next season will mark Nene's 15th in the league. He isn't exactly an iron man -- he missed at least 15 games in nine seasons -- but he has consistently been efficient. In 2011, he led the league in field goal percentage, and he is still among the NBA's top 25 in that category.
Nene's scoring prowess won't turn any heads -- he averaged fewer than 10 points per game last season -- but his per-minute production is still deceptively solid (17.3 points per 36 minutes in 2015-16). More impressive is that his per-minute steals rate trailed only that of 21-year-old Nerlens Noel among NBA bigs.
Although his rebounding numbers might look disappointing on the surface, Nene routinely ranks among the league's best in increasing his team's defensive rebounding percentage when he's on the floor. Unlike many other big men, Nene focuses on boxing his man out, which often allows a teammate to grab the uncontested defensive rebound.
Since Nene's arrival in Washington in 2012, the Wizards have consistently played better with him on the court, as attested by his 2.35 Predictive RPM. Like Pachulia, Nene is one tier below the league's best big men, and his chronic injuries might turn some teams off. But he has been a positive contributor.
After Roy Hibbert's departure, Indiana needed someone to replace his formidable presence in the paint. Despite his starting just a handful of games in his eight-year career, Ian Mahinmi slotted seamlessly into the Pacers' starting lineup last season. He posted career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. Even on a per-minute basis, Mahinmi posted a career high in steals and more than doubled his previous high in assists.
His box score numbers were solid across the board. Mahinmi was one of only nine players to average better than seven defensive rebounds, 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks per 36 minutes. Last season's Pacers improved their defensive efficiency by four points per 100 possessions with Mahinmi on the floor. With a true shooting percentage above 60 percent, Mahinmi was also among the league's more efficient offensive players.
In his eight-year career, Mahinmi has earned less than $16 million total. But because he now ranks among the league's top 60 in RPM impact, he should be due a significant raise. He will almost certainly still be a bargain.
Starting-caliber big men who help stretch the floor
The Boston Celtics were one of the surprise teams of the 2015-16 NBA season. They won 48 games and posted the league's fourth-best defensive rating. The Boston big man who logged the most minutes last season? Jared Sullinger.
Initially regarded as an elite lottery prospect, Sullinger plummeted to the 21st slot in the 2012 draft over concerns about his balky back. Such worries were apparently overblown, as Sullinger played all but one game for Boston last season. Although poor conditioning might seem to be an issue for the husky 260-pounder, it didn't show up in his stats. There is even one area in which his excess weight could be beneficial: rebounding. Last season, Sullinger logged the NBA's 14th-best rebounding rate on a per-minute basis.
On offense, Sullinger needs to improve his shot selection, as he took more than 100 3-pointers and made a paltry 28 percent of them. But he also posted the 19th-best assist rate and the 27th-best steals rate among NBA bigs.
Most importantly, the Celtics played better last season when Sullinger was on the floor. He brought a net efficiency gain of roughly three points per 100 possessions on one of the better teams in the league. With a real plus-minus impact of 2.8, Sullinger ranked among the top 40 most impactful players in the NBA.
Sullinger is a restricted free agent, so the C's will have an opportunity to match any offer he receives from another team this summer. But the Celtics also have frontcourt depth, so they might not be willing to bid aggressively to retain Sullinger's services. If not, he will be a bargain pickup for another team this summer.
Yes, Marvin Williams had a disappointing playoff series against the Miami Heat back in April. But his improved overall play still rates as one of the more pleasant surprises of the 2015-16 regular season.
The former No. 2 draft pick faced heavy expectations when he entered the league in 2005, but he stumbled in his first few seasons before settling into something approaching NBA mediocrity. But last season, Williams finally started living up to his early promise, as he cracked the top 40 in RPM impact.
At age 29, he not only posted a career high in rebounds, but he also doubled his career average block rate. Such interior production allowed the former small forward to shift over to power forward, where he thrived on offense. In fact, Williams has become one of the best catch-and-shoot bigs in the league. He was a high-volume 3-point shooter last season -- launching almost five attempts per game -- and one of only six NBA players to take at least 300 3s and convert more than 40 percent of them. Although he doesn't get many assists, Williams posted the 14th-lowest turnover rate in the league.
Yes, he has his deficiencies, and his recent poor playoff performance might cause some teams to think twice before tendering an offer sheet. But Williams has finally become an impactful NBA player, and plenty of teams are in need of bigs who can stretch the floor. That makes Marvin Williams a likely high-value free-agent target this summer.
The new Shane Battier?
Dudley has never cracked 13 points per game in his nine-year NBA career, but he has had positive plus-minus impact nearly every year. He is also the consummate teammate and a positive off-court influence -- factors much more difficult to quantify.
Dudley is similar to Marvin Williams in several respects. They're almost the same age, both have been asked to play power forward for their teams despite lacking typical power forward skills, and both have been surprisingly effective on offense, thanks to their floor-stretching ability. Like Williams, Dudley is a capable 3-point shooter (he made 42 percent of his attempts last season) who rarely turns the ball over (1.4 times per 36 minutes).
Sure, Dudley lacks the height to be a good rebounder at the power forward position, but he can thrive next to a traditional center who clears the boards -- Andre Drummond or Dwight Howard come to mind. At 30, Dudley still has at least a couple good seasons left. His RPM rating of +1.9 places him just outside the top 60 NBA players. He brings an on-court (and off-court) value that will almost certainly be higher than the salary he receives in free agency this summer.
Rotation-caliber big men who stretch the floor
The Suns' past season was one they'd probably just as soon forget: too many injuries, too much team turmoil and a disappointing 23 wins. The bright spots were few and far between. After Devin Booker -- a rookie revelation at the SG position -- Leuer might represent the most pleasant surprise.
Already on his fourth team in five seasons, Leuer hasn't exactly been a prized asset thus far in his career. But when given significant playing time for the first time in the 2015-16 season, Leuer stepped up his game. The journeyman big grabbed a very respectable 10.8 rebounds per 36 minutes of play. He logged a decent rate of steals, blocks and assists and kept turnovers to a minimum. Perhaps best of all, Leuer took almost one-fourth of his shot attempts from beyond the arc and converted an impressive 38 percent from distance. The lowly Suns were outscored by only three points per 100 possessions with Leuer on the floor, which gave him the team's second-best on-off mark, behind Eric Bledsoe.
Leuer also posted an RPM rating of -0.2, just below league average -- an excellent mark for a rotation player. Such a solid contributor off the bench, he'd still be grossly underpaid if his salary were to triple this summer from the $1 million he made last season.
Tolliver, like Leuer, is another unheralded big, a solid role player who can come off the bench and find ways to help his team win. Tolliver doesn't dazzle with traditional box score statistics -- he is consistently below average in assists, steals, blocks and points -- but his 0.8 turnovers per 36 minutes were fourth in the NBA the past season. Although his rebounding numbers weren't great, Detroit nabbed a larger share of opponent misses when Tolliver was on the floor.
Tolliver seems allergic to taking 2-pointers; more than 80 percent of his field goal attempts were 3s last season. Sure, it gives him a limited offensive role, but in the right system, it can prove helpful.
Tolliver shouldn't be making big money, but at an RPM of -0.4, more than respectable for a rotation big, he's worth far more than double the $3 million he made last season. If he doesn't get it in summer free agency, he'll be a steal.
The best point guard in Cleveland?
After he played such a central role in the Cavs' championship run, Kyrie Irving got all the backcourt praise in Cleveland. There's no denying that his scoring outbursts helped the Cavaliers claim their first NBA title.
But during the regular season, the Cavs played better with Dellavedova on the court than they did with Irving. The difference wasn't small, either. Once we adjust for strength of teammates, Dellavedova's units were about 10 points better per 100 possessions.
The Cavs' offense didn't miss a beat with Dellavedova, and they defended significantly better. The reason? Irving often forgets defensive assignments and shows an overall disinterest in playing defense, while Dellavedova haunts his opponents over the entire length of the court. Although Dellavedova doesn't have Irving's elite handle, he records more assists. He's also a capable 3-point shooter and connected on more than 40 percent of his attempts. Thanks to a low turnover rate, Dellavedova sports a superior assist-to-turnover ratio (almost 3).
Obviously, Irving is the more talented overall player -- and among the NBA's elite when he's sufficiently motivated and locked in. He's the one you'd want in crunch time against good defensive teams when shot creation is difficult. In almost any other situation, however, we'd go with Dellavedova, especially once you look at their respective salaries.
Last summer, Dellavedova signed a $1.2 million contract for a single season. Given his stellar plus-minus numbers, there should be no doubt that he is worth that many times over.
The best point guard in free agency
In the second round of the 2015 playoffs, the Memphis Grizzlies held a 2-1 lead over the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors went on to win the Finals and make regular-season history in 2015-16.
The Grizzlies' path has been a different one. Mired by injuries to several key players, the Grizzlies barely cracked .500 last season and won only 42 games. One key reason for the disappointing record: Mike Conley played only 56 games. When he wasn't playing, the Grizzlies were outscored by almost six points per 100 possessions.
They undoubtedly missed his stellar playmaking. Conley's 4.1 assist-to-turnover ratio was among the best in the league. The Memphis guard is also a relentless ball hawk, with one of the league's highest steals rates each season.
Not long ago, Conley was thought of as one of the best point guards in the league. Last season's injuries somehow derailed that notion, but because he has averaged 70 games played per season over his career, we believe he can return to form next season. Conley is only 28, and his game has never been based on freakish athleticism.
His 2.86 RPM rating makes him the best point guard in this year's free-agent class. Although he might not be a sure-fire max player, he's awfully close. He should certainly be making significantly more than his current $9.5 million per season.
An ageless wonder
NBA players generally peak around age 27, but that doesn't mean they can't contribute into their late 30s. John Stockton and Dikembe Mutombo serve as two prime examples.
A great current example? Manu Ginobili. Ginobili, 38, is one of the 10 oldest players in the NBA. Yet many younger players would be ecstatic to have his numbers. Ginobili was one of 15 players who shot better than 49 percent on 2-pointers and 39 percent on 3-pointers the past season. Although his scoring average of 9.6 doesn't excite casual NBA fans, his mediocre output was a function of his low playing time. Per 36 minutes, Ginobili scored a respectable 17.6 points.
At least in part, Ginobili plays so few minutes because the Spurs have a strong, remarkably deep team. The Spurs, winners of a ridiculous 67 games, were historically good last season. With Ginobili on the court, they outscored opponents by 14.5 points per 100 possessions, a mark surpassed by only Draymond Green, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. The Spurs were so good thanks to Ginobili -- not in spite of him.
Ginobili's other stats were solid too. He assisted on 5.6 shots per 36 minutes -- a strong mark for a shooting guard. Ginobili's passes are so valuable that he ranked No. 1 in increasing his teammates' effective field goal percentage, according to Jerry Engelmann's research this season. In steals per 36 minutes, he ranked 10th in the league.
At Ginobili's advanced age, we can probably assume a small decline in his productivity next season. But his overall level of play, which ranked third in real plus-minus among shooting guards last season, was so high that he'll still be among the league's best. Although it might be unlikely that another team signs Ginobili away from the Spurs, teams would be wise to try. His play warrants it.
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