Which under-.500 NFL teams have best shot to make playoffs?
— -- Since 1990, only eight teams have made the playoffs after starting 1-4. A?year ago, however, the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans?both did it after incredible?runs.
The Chiefs won 10?of their last 11 games to grab a wild-card spot. The Texans won the AFC South by winning eight of their last 11.
Which of the 14 teams currently under .500 this season are most likely to get hot and go on a run? Based on recent history, a profile can be designed. Some of it is based on schedule. Some of it is based on how the team is constructed. And some?of it is having key players at certain positions. Here are the categories:
Environment:?To make the playoffs after a slow start, teams need to either be in a conference that is down or in a division that could be won with seven to nine victories. Two qualifiers fit this category. In 2002, the Tennessee Titans?won 10 of 11 games and the New York Jets won eight of 11 after starting 1-4. Indianapolis and Pittsburgh were the only AFC teams that won more than 10 games that season. A couple AFC teams are poised to go on a similar run this season. Nine of the 16 teams have losing records. The New England Patriots are the only one-loss team.?
Schedule: As long as their remaining opponents don't have a combined winning percentage of .530 or more, teams have a chance. Teams that start slow have issues, and it's hard to imagine them making a big run going against winning teams they couldn't beat in the first seven weeks.
Reliable?quarterback play: You don't necessarily need a future Hall of Famer at quarterback to get hot, but it sure helps. Brett Favre led the Packers' run from 1-4 to 10-6 in 2004. Steve McNair of the Titans and Chad Pennington of the Jets did it in 2002. Instability at quarterback is a disqualifier.
Win in your division:?The Chiefs and Texans went 5-1 in their divisions last season.
Score some points: If the offense can consistently supply 21 or more points per game, a?team can rise from the bottom.
Play good?defense: Last season, 11 of the 12 playoff teams surrendered 20.2 or fewer points per game. Defense keeps teams in games. Last season, the Chiefs gave up 28.6 points per game in their first five contests. By the end of the season, they were allowing 17.9 points per game.
Here's how I rank the 14 teams with losing records, in order of how likely they are to go on a run and make the playoffs:
1. Cincinnati Bengals?(3-4)
Though the Bengals?haven't played particularly well -- in part because of a tough early schedule -- they?check all of the boxes for a team that could get hot. Quarterback? Andy Dalton has been efficient. The defense is giving up 23.1 points per game but has the talent to go under 20. The?teams left on their schedule have a combined winning percentage of?.492. The Bengals' only AFC North loss was in Pittsburgh, and they get the Steelers at home on Dec. 18. The offense -- scoring just 20 points per game so far -- has the potential to get to 24. And the return of tight end Tyler Eifert,?who missed six games due to injury,?should improve Cincinnati's passing offense and red zone production.
2. San Diego Chargers?(3-4)
Philip Rivers leads an offense that averages 29.4 points per game. The Chargers have beaten solid teams the past two weeks (the Broncos and Falcons), and they should have won a couple other games. The?teams left on San Diego's schedule have a combined winning percentage of?.466, which ranks as?one of the easiest among the losing teams. The Chargers' big knock is the defense is giving up 26.4 points per game and?is missing a few key contributors for the rest of the season.
3. Miami Dolphins?(3-4)
Surprised the Dolphins are this high? With a win over the Jets next weekend, they'll?finish their?homestand 3-1, and their next four games are against teams with losing records (at San Diego, at Los Angeles, vs. San Francisco and at Baltimore). Quarterback? Ryan Tannehill?hasn't played well -- his Total QBR is second-worst in the league -- but he has nowhere to go but up. With back-to-back 200-yard rushing games, second-year back? Jay Ajayi?is on fire. The defense hasn't been bad, giving up 22.7 points per game, and the offense -- scoring 20.9 points per game -- has room for improvement.
4. Baltimore Ravens?(3-4)
Quarterback? Joe Flacco, who?has 10?career playoff wins, has proven he can?get hot down the stretch. The Ravens'?defense is giving up 19.9 points per game, ninth-best in the league. Despite a four-game losing streak, Baltimore is only a?game behind the Steelers in the AFC North.?The knock against the Ravens is injuries. On Sunday, they were without?six starters.
5. Indianapolis Colts?(3-4)
The Colts have a star quarterback in Andrew Luck, but they need just about everything else. Luck?carried them to 11-win seasons in his first three?years in the league. Although Indianapolis has two losses in the AFC South this season, its remaining divisional games are all at home. It's still possible the AFC South champion only has to win nine games. The Colts?have three things working against them, however. The?teams left on their schedule have a combined winning percentage of?.569. Their defense has been a disaster,?giving up 28.6 points per game. And they've been fighting through a lot of injuries; they have 26 missed starts in the first seven games.
6. New York Jets?(2-5)
Sunday's win over Baltimore could turn around the Jets'?season. They play Cleveland, Miami and Los Angeles?before their bye week, and all those games are winnable. The teams still on their schedule have a combined winning percentage of?.460. They still have to play New England twice, though. What really?hurts New York's chances of going on a run is instability at quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched after throwing too many interceptions, and then? Geno Smith?took over. Now Smith is out for the season, and the Jets are going back to Fitzpatrick. They need him to play like he did last season, but that doesn't seem likely.
7. Tennessee Titans?(3-4)
The Titans check a?few boxes. Quarterback? Marcus Mariota has been great in the red zone, but he has too many turnovers. Under coordinator Dick LeBeau, the defense has exceeded expectations and is giving up 23 points per game. The?Titans play only four teams with a winning record the rest of the season. Still, you wonder if the offense can score enough points every week to make a run. The Titans are scoring only 20.9 per game.
8. Los Angeles Rams?(3-4)
The Rams' remaining?schedule is the easiest among these teams (combined .450 winning percentage). They have four games coming after the bye against losing teams -- Carolina, the New York Jets, Miami and New Orleans. Their defense is good enough, giving up 22 points per game. On the negative side, quarterback? Case Keenum almost played himself out of a starting job, throwing four picks against the?Giants in London. Plus, the Rams score only 17.1 points per game -- 30th in the league -- and would probably stay in that range if they went to No. 1 pick? Jared Goff.
9. Carolina Panthers?(1-5)
Cam Newton has proven he has the ability to carry the Panthers -- he took a 3-8-1 team on a run to the playoffs two years ago. But they have dug themselves too deep a hole this season. Unless the Falcons collapse, the Panthers have too much going against them. They have no pass rush. Their secondary is a mess. They still have to play?seven teams with winning records.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars?(2-4)
The Jaguars haven't improved like I thought they might. After Thursday night's game at Tennessee, they face seven consecutive teams with winning records -- Kansas City, Detroit, Buffalo, Denver, Minnesota and Houston twice. That's a tough stretch. Quarterback? Blake Bortles has regressed.?Jacksonville's?defense is giving up 26.7 points per game.
11. New Orleans Saints?(2-4)
Quarterback? Drew Brees needs more help, and the defense can't offer much. Against the Chiefs on Sunday, the Saints were?down to their?ninth and 10th options at cornerback since the start of OTAs.?The pass rush isn't there. The defense is again the worst in the league, giving up 32.5 points per game.?I don't see much hope for optimism.
12-14. Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears?(2-19)
These teams?are on the clock for next year's draft, and all three will likely be looking for quarterbacks. The Browns and 49ers might unload starters to pick up more?draft choices to help with their rebuilds. Their combined record?speaks for itself.
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