How to bet Weidman vs. Silva II

Further, Poirier has made good use of his reach advantage in the past, maintaining a large 4.06 SLPM. At just 2.36 SLPM, Brandao will be very motivated to somehow take this fight to the ground where he possesses his largest strength, as evidenced by his 3.38 takedowns per 15 minutes rate and 80 percent takedown accuracy. Brandao does pose some danger to Poirier in this regard, as half of Brandao's UFC victories have been by submission.

However, Poirier also possesses a very good ground game, successfully defending a respectable 63 percent of takedowns, and attempting 1.7 submissions per 15 minutes. And with Poirier's only submission loss coming after taking a large amount of stand-up damage from Jung Sung, it is unlikely that Brandao will be able to create a similar scenario. Thus, with the huge advantage Poirier possesses standing -- and with the skills to avoid taking much damage in the ground game -- consider Poirier as an undervalued favorite at a minus-225 money line.

Insider value pick: Dustin Poirier

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