Buying, selling the NFL's biggest quarterback surprises

ByMIKE SANDO
January 17, 2017, 12:21 PM

— -- Dak Prescott is up. Cam Newton is down. Aaron Rodgers is debatable. This NFL season has produced its share of NFL quarterback surprises at the midpoint. I'm buying some and selling others after consulting with ESPN's data warehouse and evaluators around the league.

Five surprises I'm buying

1. Dak Prescott is the NFL's best rookie QB

Well, yeah. The stats and a 7-1 starting record leave little doubt. A skeptic could shift credit to the Cowboys' offensive line and running game -- to a point.

"Their running game is just so great there, but he is doing it because he is damn good," a coach whose team faced the Cowboys said. "The kid throws it straight. He doesn't throw it to the other team, he salvages plays, he does a really good job, and he looks like a real guy standing there. He has poise, he is strong, it takes no effort for him to throw it."

Carson Wentz, Cody Kessler, Jacoby Brissett and Paxton Lynch are the only other rookie quarterbacks to play this season. Wentz and Kessler have combined for 14 touchdown passes with six interceptions. Prescott has 12 and two, respectively.

"Over the long haul, I would take Wentz, but right now it's Prescott," a personnel director said. "I don't know how Dallas can go back to [Tony] Romo. Why would you? You have your young team all believing in this guy. You cannot go back."

2. Matt Ryan looks like he belongs in Tier 1

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers comprised the top tier for years in evaluators' eyes, with a thick dividing line between them and the game's other quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger joined their ranks more recently, while a few others -- Philip Rivers one year, Ryan another -- have rotated into and out of the highest tier.

Ryan is solidly in that rotational window through the Falcons' first nine games this season. He is completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 2,980 yards with 23 touchdowns, four interceptions, a 119.0 passer rating and 82.3 Total QBR score. Those are all career-best numbers for Ryan through the first nine games of a season.

The situation around Ryan has improved and appears sustainable for this season. The addition of? Alex Mack?at center has transformed what had been a struggling offensive line. Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan has hit his stride in his second season with Ryan. The offense has been productive enough to protect a defense that still must improve.

3. Cam Newton has come back to earth following his MVP season

Three changes could conceivably vault Newton back to the level he reached late last season: a resurgence from running back Jonathan Stewart, short fields delivered via opponent turnovers and sharper play from Newton himself. But all the evidence suggests Newton's strong finish last season was an outlier and not something that could be sustained.

Newton's numbers through his first seven games this season (he missed one game) are slightly better than they were through seven games last season. But he tossed 21 touchdown passes with only one pick over the Panthers' final eight games last season, a surge that made him the league MVP. That was sensational production far surpassing any other eight-game stretch by Newton to finish a season. In five previous NFL seasons, Newton always had between 10 and 13 touchdown passes and four to eight interceptions in the second half of the season.

"I'm thinking he is pressing a little bit, and it's in his head that he is getting hit so much," a personnel evaluator said. "He is getting hit, but he is a running quarterback and they are running zone-read plays against the Rams. That takes its toll on him. They were taking away the ball a bunch last year, and that makes a big difference."

4. Philip Rivers is better than ever at age 34

Rivers' late-season production has fallen sharply over the past couple of seasons, but with running back Melvin Gordon producing at exceptional levels, the Chargers could be in better position to support Rivers over a full season.

Gordon's 193 carries are the most for a San Diego running back through nine games since Rivers became a starter. His 768 yards rank second by a San Diego back during the Rivers era, trailing only the 932 yards LaDainian Tomlinson gained to this point during his 2006 MVP season.

"Of all the guys we've played, Rivers scares me the most," a personnel director said. "He is the same guy, and now he is getting the run game to help him."

5. Carson Palmer's days of deep-ball dominance are history

Palmer dominated with the deep ball for the Arizona Cardinals last season. He completed 25 of 71 passes for 905 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions on passes traveling more than 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. The bottom has fallen out in 2016, with Palmer completing only five of these throws in 27 attempts, with one touchdown and three picks.

The difference on third down has been striking. Last season, Palmer completed 9 of 20 third-down passes for 305 yards with two touchdowns and no picks when launching the ball more than 20 yards downfield. He has attempted just one of these passes on third down this season, completing it for a 24-yard gain to J.J. Nelson against the Rams in Week 4.

The deep-ball numbers should perk up at least somewhat -- they cannot get much worse -- but a couple of factors are working against a revival. The Cardinals' offensive line has issues at center and both tackle spots, which could give Palmer less time to wait for routes to develop. Opponents have presumably become wiser to the Cardinals' downfield methods, adjusting their coverages.

There could still be hope, however. Palmer completed only 5 of 29 of these deep passes for two touchdowns with four interceptions over the first eight games of the 2013 season, his first in Bruce Arians' offense. Palmer completed 15 of 35 over that season's second half.

Three surprises I'm not buying (yet)

1. Russell Wilson will have a hard time leading a second-half Seattle surge

Wilson entered Monday night ranked 27th in Total QBR, having thrown only five touchdown passes during the Seahawks' first seven games. He wasn't right physically, and it wasn't clear how quickly he'd get better, calling into question Seattle's status as a contender.

Wilson showed Monday night he is closer to overcoming the ankle, knee and pectoral injuries that made him appear ordinary in recent weeks. His quickness appeared most of the way back during an early bootleg touchdown run and again when Wilson scrambled for a first down on third-and-4. Wilson also threw accurately to all levels of the field. This was the best he has looked physically since Ndamukong Suh stepped on his ankle in Week 1.

Wilson isn't likely to finish as well as he did in 2015, when he had 25 touchdown passes with two picks over the final eight games. But his 63-13 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions over the second halves of seasons makes another late surge seem credible. Seattle seems to figure out its offensive issues by mid-November each season. Getting top RB? Thomas Rawls back from injury could be essential for the offense to regain its footing on the ground.

2. Derek Carr has proved pressure no longer fazes him

Carr has been one of the NFL's most impressive quarterbacks, justifying the high marks coaches and evaluators gave him coming out of his 2014 rookie season (they consistently preferred Carr to fellow 2014 draftees Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater in our 2015 QB Tiers survey).

Evaluators have been waiting to see whether Carr could fare better under pressure against the top defenses, notably those fielded by division rivals Kansas City and Denver. Carr struggled against the Chiefs earlier this season. He was outstanding against the Broncos in what felt like a breakthrough performance on Sunday night. The Raiders' dominant ground game (218 yards) spared Carr from the sticky situations a quarterback must conquer to affirm his status among the best.

Carr has completed 5 of 12 passes for 31 yards with an interception, four sacks and a 1.8 Total QBR score when Kansas City and Denver pressured him this season according to ESPN Stats & Information. He has completed 25 of 46 passes for 297 yards with three scores, one pick, seven sacks and a 64.5 QBR when pressured by every other team the Raiders have faced. I generally don't take under-pressure stats too seriously because most quarterbacks struggle when hurried. But with Carr's reputation for wilting in the face of the rush, it's an angle to monitor.

"I would put him in the second tier; he is a good player," a personnel evaluator said. "Over time, he will have more opportunities to prove it against better defenses. The Broncos were without their top corner, they lost Derek Wolfe, and Oakland ran the ball so well. When you can run the ball, it takes pressure off the QB, but Carr is playing well."

3. Aaron Rodgers is no longer one of the NFL's top QBs

The Packers' disappointing 4-4 record and offensive struggles dating to last season have focused critical attention on the former MVP quarterback. All is not well in Green Bay, but Rodgers ranks fifth in Total QBR (73.6) and has 20 touchdowns with five interceptions for a team that is playing a wide receiver at running back. How many guys could manage that?