The only way to make sense of what happened Saturday is to realize that Indianapolis plays best when people expect the worst. Many people believed this team would take a step back this year after finishing 11-5 in 2012 and losing the emotional motivation that Pagano's illness inspired. Instead, the Colts wound up 11-5 again. They also claimed the AFC South title. They also beat Denver, San Francisco and Seattle, three teams that most people would argue have the best chance of winning this year's Super Bowl.
Sure, the Colts produced a few stinkers -- including blowout losses to St. Louis, Arizona and Cincinnati -- but those now seem more like the obvious curse of youth. They were letdown games, moments when a blossoming team forgot that any opponent can embarrass you if you're not ready to play. Given how Pagano has handled this squad, the Colts learned their lessons fast. They weren't good enough to thrive without giving their best effort every time out.
Saturday's game felt very much like some of those disappointments early. Most of that also had to do with how the Chiefs were playing instead of the Colts not showing up. Even with star running back Jamaal Charles suffering a concussion on the first possession of the game, Kansas City executed a game plan that was almost flawless. The Chiefs forced Luck into three interceptions, connected on long passes to wide receivers Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery and rallied behind the brilliance of quarterback Alex Smith, who threw for 378 yards and four touchdowns. The Chiefs had never looked better all season.
That, in the end, might have been their biggest problem. That effort actually put the Colts into a comfort zone, and Pagano played on that at halftime.
"We've been here before," said Pagano, adding that he told his team to "trust techniques, fundamentals. I know I sounded like a broken record, but that's what we did. We did it one play at a time."
It's fair to say the Colts needed every big play they created to win this game. It didn't seem that huge when Pro Bowl outside linebacker Robert Mathis sacked Smith and forced a fumble that linebacker Kelvin Sheppard recovered early in the third quarter. But as it turned out, the game pivoted on that turnover. Luck also engineered three scoring drives in that same quarter, none of which lasted longer than two minutes. The speed of those possessions was equally crucial to the comeback.
Of course, the dagger was a 64-yard touchdown pass from Luck to wide receiver T.Y. Hilton -- who finished with 13 receptions, 224 yards and two touchdowns -- with 4 minutes, 21 seconds remaining in the game. The Chiefs will spend months trying to understand how a second-year receiver could dominate them. They might need even more time to decipher how Hilton raced past two safeties to grab the game-winning toss when the smart money had Luck looking for him in a pinch. What the Chiefs should do is simply accept that they were dealing with Indianapolis at the worst possible time, with the Colts' backs up against the wall.