MLB daily notes: Fantasy rankings for Friday
— -- What was supposed to be a Clayton Kershaw night has turned into a wide-open slate. The only ace, Jacob deGrom, is facing the high-scoring Chicago Cubs. Johnny Cueto, who has pitched like an ace, has the tough task of taming the Arizona Diamondbacks in the desert, while the Boston Red Sox will hope some home cooking and Steven Wright's knuckler work miracles against the Los Angeles Angels. It's set up to be quite a ride, so fasten your seatbelts and point your GPS to Friday's Daily Notes.
Pitching
Elite
DeGrom should be in consideration for June pitcher of the month, registering a 2.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 40 strikeouts to five walks in 33 innings. So why isn't he a no-brainer DFS anchor as he kicks off July? The New York Mets right-hander is tasked with taming the Cubs as the squads embark on a series in Citi Field. There's strikeout upside as the prolific Cubs fan at an above-average pace, but the warm and fuzzy feeling desired from a cash game anchor just isn't there. Your mileage may vary.
Solid
Very good but not great is the best way to describe Sonny Gray's June. But that's also an apropos characterization of the Oakland Athletics right-hander, so it appears he's back on track after 30 2/3 innings with a 3.32 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, fanning 22 with just five free passes. A date with the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates will be a great litmus test for the 26-year-old as the Bucs sport a respectable 0.329 weighted on base average (wOBA) versus righties and have the luxury of using a designated hitter. It's hard to justify using Gray in a GPP; the strikeout upside just isn't there but he does profile as a better cash game candidate than deGrom.
While on paper Cueto incurs a big park downgrade with a visit to Chase Field to take on the Diamondbacks, as a former Cincinnati Reds hurler, Cueto is well acquainted with working in hitter-friendly ballparks. As such, he's in play for both DFS cash and GPP action. His penchant for going deep into games with a decent 7.7 K/9 provides the cash floor while the Snakes' 24 percent strikeout rate facing right-handers avails the tournament upside. You also have to like his offense's chance to put up some tallies with Shelby Miller taking the hill for the home team.
Will the real Drew Smyly please stand up? Those of a certain age, or fans of the Game Show Network, recognize that as a "To Tell the Truth" reference. To tell the truth, Smyly is one of the more frustrating pitchers to analyze. Just as he appears ready to get back on track, he's derailed. The latest crash came last time out against the Baltimore Orioles as the Tampa Bay Rays lefty was tagged for 10 hits and eight runs in five innings. That came on the heels of a pair of outings featuring 17 punchouts with nary a walk in 13 2/3 frames. Next up are the Detroit Tigers, a similar club to the Orioles, though this affair will be in the comforts of Tropicana Field. With a 10.0 K/9, Smyly is best deployed only in a GPP. He's too risky for cash even in the pitcher-friendly venue.
If you were told back in March that Jaime Garcia would give you 88 first-half innings, you'd be ecstatic. However, your enthusiasm would be tempered once it was learned those would come with a 4.09 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Some of that is bad luck as the St. Louis Cardinals lefty carries a hefty 0.329 batting average on balls in play with a slightly high 11 percent home run-per-fly ball mark. But, he also hasn't been as sharp, as evidenced by a spike in walk rate. The veteran southpaw is in a great spot to get the second half going in the right direction as the Milwaukee Brewers make the trip to Busch Stadium for a weekend set with their NL Central foes. The visitors whiff at a 24 percent pace against left-handers, yielding Garcia as a top GPP option.
Normally, a pitcher's DFS potential is tempered facing the Los Angeles Angels as they don't strike out much. However, throw all that out the window when the pitcher is Steven Wright. The knuckleball specialist is largely eschewed by the DFS community, which always makes him a contrarian play. The Boston Red Sox's vaunted attack is scuffling, not only on the road but also at home. That said, returning to Fenway Park is usually a panacea for the club so run support could be in the offing against Jhoulys Chacin.
In seasonal fantasy, there's a cliché that goes something like "He's so underrated that he's overrated." The DFS equivalent could be, "He's so contrarian that he's chalk." This applies to Michael Fulmer as he leads the Detroit Tigers into Tropicana Field for a weekend series with the Tampa Bay Rays. The home team's bats have been productive lately, but a lot of that damage came against lefties and their wOBA facing southpaws is the league's best. Against right-handers they're below average while punching out one quarter of the time. On such a varied slate, Fulmer is likely to be a popular GPP pick.
Let's save some bandwidth for streamers by briefly identifying the remaining solid DFS options. If you want embellishment, please post in the comments below or shoot a tweet to @ToddZola. Julio Teheran and Tanner Roark are favorable options for cash games while Nathan Eovaldi, Mike Fiers and Jorge De La Rosa profile nicely for tournaments.
Streamers
Unfortunately, there aren't a lot of enticing options to spot in, but we'll point out the better options since we're getting close to the end of the head-to-head scoring period.
Wade LeBlanc impressed the Seattle Mariners brass enough to get a second start, banishing Nate Karns to the bullpen. The journeyman southpaw takes on the dangerous Baltimore Orioles, but the affair is in Safeco Field and the visitors whiff at an above-average clip against lefties. Those needing to protect ratios may want to look elsewhere, but if you're chasing wins, the Mariners' sticks have been productive so LeBlanc should have some runs to work with.
In five June starts with the Atlanta Braves, new Los Angeles Dodgers righty Bud Norris boasted an impressive 2.15 ERA with 29 whiffs in 29 1/3 frames. Studies demonstrate pitchers throwing well usually continue, so despite facing a Colorado Rockies squad that handles righties well, Norris is in play since the Rox do most of their damage in Coors and this meeting is in Dodger Stadium.
If Colin Rea can keep the top of the New York Yankees' order in check, he should be in good shape as the Yankees as a squad sport a pedestrian 0.314 wOBA against righties. Plus, the game is in Petco, which means a park downgrade and likely no Alex Rodriguez.
Martin Perez hasn't pitched as well as his 3.44 ERA suggests, as evidenced by a weak 4.4 K/9 and wild 3.8 BB/9. Against most clubs, the narrative would be expect regression to kick in, but with the Minnesota Twins on the docket, the Texas Rangers southpaw's in play for this Target Field encounter.
Avoid
While there are some very risky choices, no one warrants complete avoidance other than the trio of Jeff Locke, Miguel Gonzalez and Jhoulys Chacin, who all check in with projected Game Scores of 45 or below, in the auto-avoid range.
Hitting
Friday could be a day to focus more on individual players in favorable spots as opposed to team stacks since the available pig-piles don't feel as explosive as usual. But there are some locales worth considering, beginning in Minute Maid Park with Miguel Gonzalez taking the ball for the visiting Chicago White Sox. The Houston Astros picked it up in June, stroking a 0.364 wOBA against right-handers for the month. Regardless of handedness, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer are always dangerous. Marwin Gonzalez is a tough out along with lefties Luis Valbuena, A.J. Reed and Colby Rasmus. The latter three are best utilized in a tournament stack.
The Oakland Athletics are another club hitting better as of late. They're in a good spot to keep the lumber pounding against southpaw Jeff Locke. Coco Crisp, Marcus Semien, Jed Lowrie, Danny Valencia, Jake Smolinski and Josh Phegley spearhead an attack that gets better if Khris Davis' shoulder is well enough to allow him to play.
From the Department of Silver Linings, the Boston Red Sox's recent hitting woes have dropped the prices of the likes of Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz and Hanley Ramirez. A return to friendly Fenway to face Chacin could be just what the doctor ordered.
Whenever there's a late pitching change, it's prudent to see if the prices of the affected hitters are out of whack. When the actual change is Bud Norris, a middling righty in for Kershaw, owner of the most valuable left arm on the planet, opposing left-handed hitters could be an absolute steal if they were priced expecting Kershaw. Be sure to check Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez as they could be bargains.
Most likely to go yard: Josh Donaldson
Josh Tomlin struggles with the long ball and since he doesn't display significant splits, let's anoint Donaldson in Rogers Centre as the hitter despite lacking the platoon edge.
Most likely to swipe a bag: Ben Revere
Anthony DeSclafani does a poor job controlling the running game and is also prone to walks. Revere may not be the most patient hitter but he'll be even more impatient if he gets on base. Look for him to take off if afforded the chance.
