NBA season forecast: Predictions, player previews for all 30 teams
— -- Check out our win-loss projections -- based on Real Plus-Minus (RPM) -- for all 30 NBA teams along with detailed player breakdowns and storylines heading into the 2016-17 season.
??
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Golden State Warriors
Proj. wins: 66.7
Last season: 73-9
5-on-5: Steph or KD for MVP?
Kevin Durant. The early returns see Durant more involved in the scoring than Steph Curry. Not only that, but Golden State's most effective tactic is probably a Steph screen for KD. Since defenders can't help off Curry, because of his deadly shot, the Curry screen is resulting in easy buckets for Durant. This is fantastic for one superstar's stat line, but not so much for the other's. Advantage, KD. -- Ethan Sherwood Strauss
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Warriors
Player spotlight: Kevin Durant
The Warriors' offense will feature Durant's skills, and he gives them another bailout option late in the clock. Nobody in the league is better at hitting difficult shots than Durant, who can get off a shot any time he wants thanks to his size (he's surely bigger than his listed 6-foot-9) and long arms. That can compel Durant to settle instead of looking for better shots, but he's also a gifted playmaker who will fill Draymond Green's role as a creator off the pick-and-roll at times.
Read our full analysis on Durant and every Warriors player
San Antonio Spurs
Proj. wins: 54.4
Last season:?67-15
5-on-5: What is the biggest issue facing the Spurs this season?
Can they maintain the culture of selflessness without so many of their mainstays, most notably Tim Duncan? This might be the first year in a long time we see the ball stick on offense and defensive rotations lapses for the silver and black. -- Amin Elhassan
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Spurs
Player spotlight: Kawhi Leonard
It's hard to believe now that Leonard was an offensive afterthought as recently as 2013-14, when he used just 18.3 percent of the Spurs' plays. That jumped to 23 percent in 2014-15, then again to 25.8 percent last season. That's still relatively low for a superstar -- aside from Leonard, the other noncenter All-NBA first-teamers since 2010-11 have averaged 30.5 percent usage, and only point guard Chris Paul has made the team with a lower usage rate in that span.
Read our full analysis on Leonard and every Spurs player
Utah Jazz
Proj. wins:?47.4
Last season:?40-42
5-on-5:? What is the biggest issue facing the Jazz this season?
I'm not wild about the spacing from the bigs. As much as I love Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors individually, I'm not sure about their on-court pairing. The additions of Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw will help, but both of those guys are on the decline. -- Amin Elhassan
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Jazz
Player spotlight: Rudy Gobert
There's still plenty of room for improvement for Gobert on offense, where opponents started defending him with power forwards so they could use centers against Favors to neutralize his post-up game. While Gobert shows some promise as a passer (he averaged a credible 1.7 assists per 36 minutes), he's not a scoring threat at all away from the perimeter. Gobert shot 22.9 percent on attempts beyond 3 feet last season, per Basetball-Reference.com, which was actually a slight improvement on his 21.7 percent mark in 2014-15. And while Gobert can make smaller defenders pay on the offensive glass, he doesn't really have any semblance of a post game, making those crossmatches an effective option.
Read our full analysis on Gobert and every Jazz player
Houston Rockets
Proj. wins:?46.9
Last season:?41-41
Player spotlight: James Harden
The problem, of course, is defense. Harden's offensive output wasn't much worse than 2014-15, when he was a narrow runner-up to Stephen Curry for MVP (and won the inaugural players' choice award). But after improving his defensive effort, he fell into bad habits after a preseason injury affected his conditioning. Worse yet, Harden's defensive indifference seemed to infect his teammates, and Houston fell from sixth in defensive rating to 21st. If the Rockets are to improve, Harden will need to set the tone -- particularly after agreeing to a contract renegotiation and extension that locks him up through at least 2018-19. Playing fewer minutes might help. Harden played a league-high 38.1 minutes per game last season and shouldn't have to carry such a heavy load with more scoring on the roster.
Read our full analysis on Harden and every Rockets player
5-on-5 predictions coming soon
Los Angeles Clippers
Proj. wins:?46.8
Last season: 53-29
Fact or Fiction: This is the season the Clippers' age starts to show.
Fact, but the effects of age can be mitigated with rest and recovery, which is why you could see the ranking members of the Clippers' core get a steady diet of rest once we reach the winter doldrums of the interminable 82-game regular season. If the Clippers are doing it right, Paul should play not much north of 2,000 minutes before the postseason. -- Kevin Arnovitz
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Clippers
Player spotlight: Blake Griffin
Griffin used a career-high 29.8 percent of the Clippers' plays. Creating more of his own shots means lots of isolations from the midpost to the 3-point line, where Griffin is a threat to shoot (he made a respectable 38.4 percent of 2-point attempts beyond 16 feet) or pass (5.2 assists per 36 minutes). Defenses have started to counter by putting their centers on Blake Griffin to bother him with length, opening him up to drive. Since Griffin is so effective with the ball in his hands, it's tough to understand why Doc Rivers has as yet been unwilling to stagger his minutes with Paul's to keep one on the court at all times.
Read our full analysis on Griffin and every Clippers player
Oklahoma City Thunder
Proj. wins:?45.7
Last season:?55-27
Fact or Fiction: Russell Westbrook should be the favorite for the MVP award
Fiction. Westbrook is the sentimental favorite, with heaps of goodwill pouring in. But there's one pesky problem: wins. There hasn't been a sub-50 win MVP since 1982 (Moses Malone), and unless Westbrook is really special, it's unlikely the Thunder reach the threshold. LeBron James is still the best player in basketball, and the Warriors are going to steal votes -- as well as all of the wins. -- Royce Young
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Thunder
Player spotlight: Russell Westbrook
Yeah, Westbrook takes too many jumpers off the dribble -- he attempted 8.2 pull-ups per game last season, the league's 10th-highest average, while posting a 42.3 percent effective field goal percentage (eFG) on those shots, according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats. Though critics still point to Westbrook taking 4.3 3-pointers a game at a 29.6 percent clip, he at least slashed his rate of long 2-pointers, of which he made 39.2 percent for a worse eFG, per Basketball-Reference.com. As a result, Westbrook both made better than 50 percent of his 2-point attempts and had an above-average true shooting percentage (.554) for the first time in his career. Alas, both will likely fall this season as Westbrook has to take more difficult shots without Durant around. His usage rate in games Durant missed in 2014-15 was greater than 40 percent, which would be the highest on record over a full NBA season.
Read our full analysis on Westbrook and every Thunder player
Portland Trail Blazers
Proj. wins:?44.9
Last season:?44-38
5-on-5: What needs to happen for the Blazers to be a power in the West?
A trade for a high-level difference-maker. Portland is deservedly brimming with hope. Its team is young and stretchy and plays aesthetically pleasing basketball. Damian Lillard is a snarly brand of superstar you can get behind. But in an era of super teams, the Blazers appear destined for a Hawksian malaise when they bump their head on their current ceiling once or twice. -- Justin Verrier
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Blazers
Player spotlight: Damian Lillard
Lillard's ability to score in the pick-and-roll and isolations is central to Portland's post-Aldridge offense. He pushed his usage rate to 31.3 percent, the league's eighth-highest mark, while maintaining an identical .560 true shooting percentage. After Stephen Curry, to whom he's often compared, Lillard's 121 unassisted 3-pointers ranked second in the league, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Read our full analysis on Lillard and every Blazers player
Denver Nuggets
Proj. wins:?41.8
Last season:?33-49
5-on-5:? How many future stars are on the Nuggets roster?
Denver has one can't-miss future star in Jokic, their nimble Serbian big with elite passing skills, strong shooting ability and precocious defensive positioning. He came from out of nowhere last season to crash the NBA leaderboard in real plus-minus (RPM) and finish third in rookie of the year voting. And although Mudiay was awful last season, he too has obvious star potential -- though it's too early in his development to know whether he'll reach it. --? Steve Ilardi
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Nuggets
Player spotlight: Kenneth Faried
After two down seasons under Brian Shaw, with whom he never seemed to click, Faried's effort level rebounded under new head coach Michael Malone. Still, Faried's role in Denver going forward is uncertain as the Nuggets continue to stockpile younger big men who better complement each other. With three years remaining on a contract that pays him a little less than $13 million a year, Faried is a likely trade candidate.
Read our full analysis on Faried and every Nuggets player
Memphis Grizzlies
Proj. wins:?39.9
Last season: 42-40
5-on-5:?Fact or Fiction: The Grizzlies will make the playoffs.
Fact. It's hard to bet against the Grizzlies extending their playoff streak -- the third-longest active run in the league -- after they managed to hang on to a spot without Conley and Gasol and several others down the stretch last season. -- Tim MacMahon
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Grizzlies
Player spotlight: Chandler Parsons
Before the meniscus injury, Parsons was playing as well as ever, posting a career-best .589 true shooting percentage. That was mostly thanks to shooting 41.4 percent from 3-point range, better than his career 38.0 percent mark. Often a spot-up shooter with the Mavericks and Houston Rockets, Parsons would like to play more with the ball in his hands and was sold by the Grizzlies' pitch that his usage rate (never higher than 20.6 percent before) would go up in Memphis. Playing next to Tony Allen on the wing, Parsons should serve as a secondary ball handler and get to run pick-and-rolls more frequently. His 47.7 percent shooting as a pick-and-roll ball handler ranked among the top 10 for players with at least 100 attempts, per Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats.
Read our full analysis on Parsons and every Grizzlies player
Minnesota Timberwolves
Proj. wins:?38.1
Last season:?29-53
Player spotlight: Karl-Anthony Towns
John Calipari accelerated Towns' development during his one season at Kentucky by forcing him inside. Towns retains the soft touch from the perimeter that made him such a promising prep prospect. He shot a below-average 34.1 percent from 3-point range, but his 50.6 percent accuracy on 2-pointers beyond 16 feet ranked second among players with at least 100 attempts, per Basketball-Reference.com. Thanks to Calipari's forcing him inside, Towns is also dangerous in the post using hooks with either hand and a fadeaway jump shot. His 231 points on post-ups ranked in the league's top 20, per Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats. And when Towns draws fouls, he's an excellent free throw shooter for a big man (81.1 percent), boosting his strong .590 true shooting percentage.
Read our full analysis on Towns and every Wolves player
5-on-5 predictions coming soon
Sacramento Kings
Proj. wins:?37.6
Last season:?33-49
Fact or fiction: The Kings should trade DeMarcus Cousins
Fact. As remarkable a player as Cousins is, the way he interacts with young teammates makes it difficult for them to live up to their potential. It's hard to separate that from scouting mistakes, but the fact that the Kings haven't successfully developed a lottery pick since they drafted Cousins is troubling. -- Kevin Pelton
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Kings
Player spotlight: DeMarcus Cousins
On the court, the biggest evolution of Cousins' game was the addition of 3-point range. He'd made only 11 triples in 69 attempts in his first six seasons before firing up 210 last season, which he made at a 33.3 percent clip. While the newfound range helped Cousins coexist with Willie Cauley-Stein in big starting lineups, the Kings would surely prefer him in the paint, where he drew enough fouls to average a career-high 10.6 free throw attempts per 36 minutes. Cousins also saw his offensive rebound percentage decline by more than a quarter. With his strength and quickness, Cousins is difficult to stop one-on-one in his favored left block. His 348 points on post-ups ranked fifth in the league, per Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats.
Read our full analysis on Cousins and every Kings player
New Orleans Pelicans
Proj. wins:?37.1
Last season:?30-52
5-on-5: What trade would make the most sense for the Pelicans?
Anything that unclogs the paint, the cap sheet and the roster crunch. Absent a Hail Mary with Omer Asik, swapping Alexis Ajinca, who is miscast on an Alvin Gentry team, for any asset (future second?) would free up a spot to keep Lance Stephenson or sign another wing who shakes free. They could then waive Alonzo Gee and find a backup center for the minimum. -- Justin Verrier
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Pelicans
Player spotlight: Anthony Davis
Davis' defensive effort was more disappointing than his offensive step back. Whether it was health-related or tied to frustration over the team's slow start, Davis' energy level wasn't the same as the year before, when he had started to make good on his immense defensive potential. Davis' block percentage dropped by nearly a quarter and his steal rate was down too. As a result, his defensive rating in ESPN's real plus-minus dropped from second among power forwards in 2014-15 to outside the top 15 last season.
Read our full analysis on Davis and every Pelicans player
Dallas Mavericks
Proj. wins:?35.0
Last season:?42-40
5-on-5:? What's your take on the Harrison Barnes deal?
For some reason, the Mavs ignored my advice to re-sign Chandler Parsons. Then again, I didn't think he'd still be recovering from March knee surgery as the regular season nears. Barnes definitely won't be a bargain, but the Mavs are better with him now and in the post-Dirk future than they'd be without him. They decided a solid starter with a chance to improve is worth a huge investment. --? Tim MacMahon
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Mavericks
Player spotlight: Harrison Barnes
"I think he can do a lot more than he's been asked to do, and that's what we expect to see," Dallas owner Mark Cuban declared after signing Barnes. The problem with that logic is it's precisely when Barnes has been asked to do more (i.e., create his own shot) that he has struggled. That was Barnes' role off the bench his second season, when just 62.6 percent of his field goals were assisted and he shot a dismal 41.9 percent on 2-point attempts and 34.7 percent on 3s.
Read our full analysis on Barnes and every Mavericks player
Phoenix Suns
Proj. wins:?28.9
Last season:?23-59
5-on-5:?The Suns are moving in what direction??
The right one. They've finally embraced rebuilding, and the additions of Devin Booker, Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender give them a very solid foundation to put in place next to veterans like Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. - - Chad Ford
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Suns
Player spotlight: Devin Booker
By the end of the season, Booker was basically playing point guard, which would have been unthinkable based on how little he handled the ball at Kentucky. In part because of the limited talent around him, Booker wasn't yet very good in that role -- his assist-to-turnover ratio was barely better than 1 as a point guard, per NBAwowy.com -- but it was part of Booker's evolution. He posted up a little when opponents put smaller defenders on him, came off screens and ran pick-and-rolls, offering the potential of becoming a well-rounded shooting specialist in the mold of Ray Allen or Klay Thompson.
Read our full analysis on Booker and every Suns player
Los Angeles Lakers
Proj. wins:?24.3
Last season:?17-65
5-on-5: How many future stars do the Lakers have?
1.5, but don't ask me who. The Lakers have gone about their rebuild in the correct fashion by collecting a variety of talented players who perform different functions; the hard part is figuring out which gamble will pay off. Realistically, Brandon Ingram and D'Angelo Russell are the two with the highest upsides among them. -- Amin Elhassan
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Lakers
Player spotlight: D'Angelo Russell
The arrival of Luke Walton as Byron Scott's replacement should be great news for Russell, who will have more freedom to play his pick-and-roll game. While Russell wasn't efficient in the pick-and-roll as a rookie, his ability to shoot pull-up jumpers off the dribble with 3-point range forces defenses to play him honestly, setting him up to turn the corner. He made strides over the course of his rookie season in finishing with his right hand and showed a good in-between game, making 46.0 percent of his attempts between 3 and 10 feet, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Read our full analysis on Russell and every Lakers player
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cleveland Cavaliers
Proj. wins:? 54.1
Last season:?57-25
5-on-5: Will?LeBron James be the best player in the league this season?
Yes, but he probably won't be the MVP. Over the past several years, James has taken a slow build-up approach into the season. His energy level, especially on defense, has habitually been low in the first two months. This has hurt his stats and led some to conclude he is losing a step. Perhaps there's truth there, but no matter how he performs over the next couple of months, just remember what he did in Games 5-7 of the NBA Finals last June. --? Brian Windhorst
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Cavaliers
Player spotlight: Kyrie Irving
After struggling through the 2015 playoffs and exiting the NBA Finals early with a fractured kneecap, Irving's 2016 Finals performance cemented him as one of the most unstoppable one-on-one scorers in the NBA. The New Jersey native is among the most skilled players; he has a top-three handle in the league, a myriad of artful finishes in the paint and a deadly pull-up game. While his full-season numbers in 2015-16 were down due to recovery from the fractured kneecap, Irving regained his full powers in the playoffs and outplayed the likes of Kyle Lowry and Stephen Curry.
Read our full analysis on Irving and every Cavaliers player
Boston Celtics
Proj. wins:?49.2
Last season:?48-34
5-on-5:? Fact or Fiction: Al Horford is the star Boston's been looking for
Fiction. They should be thrilled with the one-two punch of adding a versatile All-Star big man and stealing him away from a conference rival. But to be a true championship contender, Horford can't be their best player. The C's are still searching for that superstar -- and that's totally OK. --? Tom Haberstroh
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Celtics
Player spotlight: Jaylen Brown
Few draft picks in recent history have been as polarizing as Brown, who rated poorly by most statistical projections based on his lone season at California. The stats-only version of my WARP projections pegged Brown as a below-replacement NBA player based on his inefficient scoring, and outside the top 100 prospects in the draft. Because of his combination of quickness and power, Brown still had plenty of believers in the scouting community, and Boston took him No. 3 overall based on that upside.
Read our full analysis on Brown and every Celtics player
Toronto Raptors
Proj. wins:?48.3
Last season:?56-26
5-on-5: What trade would make the most sense for the Raptors?
They talked to the Hawks about a Paul Millsap deal over the summer. Terms would get interesting, as he's likely going to opt out of his deal at the end of the season, but getting a dynamic two-way All-Star would be huge for any team. Then again, the Cavs vanquished Millsap the past two years in the playoffs. -- Brian Windhorst
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Raptors
Player spotlight: Jonas Valanciunas
With DeRozan and Lowry struggling to score, Valanciunas stepped into a larger offensive role during the first two rounds of the playoffs, averaging 15.0 points on 55.0 percent shooting before suffering a sprained ankle that sidelined him until the Eastern Conference finals. However, it's Valanciunas' defense that figures to take on paramount importance in the first season of his four-year, $64 million extension because Toronto no longer has departed backup Bismack Biyombo as a defensive-minded alternative.
Read our full analysis on Valanciunas and every Raptors player
Detroit Pistons
Proj. wins:?46.6
Last season:?44-38
5-on-5:? What is the biggest source of hope for the Pistons this season?
Sure, free throws are still a major problem for Drummond, but otherwise he looks poised for a big season. He has been playing volleyball with himself on the offensive glass during the preseason, averaging 11 offensive boards per 48 minutes. And he's averaging 27 boards overall per 48. Twenty-seven! -- Bradford Doolittle
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Pistons
Player spotlight: Andre Drummond
The offensive rebounding paired with his huge wingspan and excellent leaping ability make Drummond one of the best pick-and-roll bigs in the league. Even when he did not receive the pass, he opened the lane for Jackson as opponents terrified of an alley-oop or offensive rebound stuck to him rather than help. The next step for Drummond is learning to make a play when opponents trap his pick-and-rolls to force an early pass to him at the free throw line. Cleveland met with great success using this tactic in the playoffs because the big center lacked the vision to find open teammates in the resulting 4-on-3 situations.
Read our full analysis on Drummond and every Pistons player
Charlotte Hornets
Proj. wins:?41.6
Last season:?48-34
5-on-5:?What is the Hornets' primary cause for optimism?
They have an excellent coach, whom they smartly extended last year, and it appears Kemba Walker is moving into his prime as a difference-making player. Also, the East is fluid in the middle, the difference between the fourth-best team and perhaps the 10th-best is narrow. If they are able to build on last season, they could zoom up. -- Brian Windhorst
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Hornets
Player spotlight: Kemba Walker
Coming off his best season, Walker is one of the bargains of the NBA. Charlotte has Walker on the hook for three more seasons at $12 million annually, including 2016-17. This for a player who just finished 13th in the NBA in WARP and nearly carried the Hornets to a first-round win over Miami. That is, before Walker had a Game 7 clunker, scoring just nine points on 3-of-16 shooting. Still, Walker is just hitting his prime, has climbed into the upper tiers of his position and sports RPMs that are positive on both ends of the floor. To have him under that bargain contract in this salary-cap environment -- it's kind of like finding a Van Gogh sitting in a rack under a flashing blue light.
Read our full analysis on Walker and every Hornets player
Washington Wizards
Proj. wins:?41.5
Last season:?41-41
Wizards player profiles and 5-on-5 predictions coming soon
Atlanta Hawks
Proj. wins:?39.7
Last season:?48-34
5-on-5: What do you expect from Dennis Schroder this season?
Schroder will attack defenses for 36 minutes a night -- sometimes to devastating effect and sometimes to the bemusement of teammates, coaches and fans.The Hawks have been weighing Schroder's capacity to lead the team for the better part of two seasons and that discussion has usually revolved around his judgment, but his defense and rebounding are also question marks that, if unaddressed, could hurt the Hawks far more than a handful of head-scratching turnovers a night. -- Kevin Arnovitz
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Hawks
Player spotlight: Dwight Howard
These days, Howard is less Shaquille O'Neal and more Nate Thurmond. His offensive role in Houston kept shrinking until last season his usage rate slipped to a career-low 18.5 percent. The good news was that Howard's efficiency at the rim (70.6 percent in the restricted area, per NBA.com/stats) led to a career-best 62.5 percent mark on 2-pointers. His free throw shooting was again lackluster, dropping under break-even in 2015-16, and even after another summer of working on this chronic issue, it's silly to think it'll get better at this point.
Read our full analysis on Howard and every Hawks player
Indiana Pacers
Proj. wins:?39.1
Last season:?45-37
5-on-5:? What trade would make the most sense for the Pacers?
Moving Ellis to the Kings for a package including Ben McLemore. The Kings have made a run at Ellis before and are desperate for the playoffs. I don't love his fit in Indiana anymore. McLemore is a project but he might thrive in a more disciplined culture. --? Chad Ford
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Pacers
Pacers player profiles coming soon
Chicago Bulls
Proj. wins:?38.8
Last season:?42-40
Player spotlight: Rajon Rondo
Rondo's move from Sacramento to Chicago was one that few saw coming. The two-year, $27.4 million contract is a second straight "prove it" deal for Rondo, with only $3 million guaranteed for 2017-18.The mercurial point guard maintains some of the skills that made him one of the league's best in his prime. Although his league-leading 11.7 assists per game were marred by stat-hunting, Rondo is excellent at squeezing the ball through to the roll man and might be the league's best post-entry passer.
Read our full analysis on Rondo and every Bulls player
5-on-5 predictions coming soon
Orlando Magic
Proj. wins:?36.8
Last season:?35-47
Player spotlight: Serge Ibaka
One of the bigger gambles any team took this offseason came on draft night, when the Magic acquired Ibaka from Oklahoma City for Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova and the rights to Domantas Sabonis. Orlando GM Rob Hennigan sent away one of his own high-lottery picks (Oladipo) while he was still under his rookie contract for a player whose game showed wear and tear last season and who is entering a contract year.
Read our full analysis on Ibaka and every Magic player
5-on-5 predictions coming soon
Miami Heat
Proj. wins:?35.4
Last season:?48-34
5-on-5:? What's the biggest source of hope for the Heat this season?
Besides having this year's first-round pick? The development of second-year players Winslow and Josh Richardson, who played key minutes in the postseason earlier this year. Their modest contracts will help the Heat build around whatever players they can add in free agency next summer. --? Kevin Pelton
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Heat
Player spotlight: Justise Winslow
Winslow's defense is well ahead of his offense at this point, and his summer project was to build himself up on that end. As a rookie, he created little offense (12.5 percent usage rate) and was inefficient with the chances he did get (49.0 true shooting percentage). His strength right now should be running the floor, but he ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in transition on a per-play basis, per Synergy Sports Technologies.
Read our full analysis on Winslow and every Heat player
New York Knicks
Proj. wins:?34.8
Last season: 32-50
Player spotlight: Kristaps Porzingis
At 7-foot-3, Porzingis proved remarkably adept at defending smaller opponents on the perimeter. His huge wingspan allows Porzingis to play a step off and still contest shots, and his nimble feet allow him to cover ground quickly against the pick-and-roll. Naturally, Porzingis' size also makes him an effective shot-blocker, and he swatted more shots than the average center. Ultimately, Porzingis' future lies in the middle, where he played about a quarter of his minutes last season, according to Nylon Calculus tracking. Porzingis will have to add strength to defend bigger players down low, and New York seems in no hurry to move him there full time.
Read our full analysis on Porzingis and every Knicks player
5-on-5 predictions coming soon
Milwaukee Bucks
Proj. wins:?33.4
Last season:?33-49
Player spotlight: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Already considered one of the best prospects in basketball, "The Greek Freak" experienced a remarkable evolution of his game because of injuries to Bucks point guards Michael Carter-Williams and Greivis Vasquez. With few other options, coach Jason Kidd decided to make Antetokounmpo his lead ball handler after the All-Star Break and the team thrived. After the break, the Bucks scored 105.9 points per 100 possessions and had a 0.1 net rating with Giannis on the floor. He averaged 18.8 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 7.2 assists in that span. Most impressively for a young player in an expanded role, "Point Giannis" managed to turn the ball over on only 10.6 percent of his possessions.
Read our full analysis on Antetokounmpo and every Bucks player
5-on-5 predictions coming soon
Brooklyn Nets
Proj. wins:?29.3
Last season: 21-61
5-on-5: Which NYC point guard will have a better season: Jeremy Lin or Derrick Rose?
Oh, this one is easy for me. Jeremy Lin. Rose missed all of preseason and Lin has looked fantastic in the preseason. Given Rose's health questions and the fact that last season he ranked 69th in real plus-minus (RPM) among point guards, I'd go as far to say Brandon Jennings will be superior as well. -- Tom Haberstroh
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 Nets
Player spotlight: Jeremy Lin
The Nets were a great destination for Lin because this is the first time since Linsanity he'll have the ball in his hands full time, without a star shooting guard (James Harden and Kobe Bryant) or established starting point guard (Kemba Walker) with whom to share it. Lin has become a good enough 3-point shooter to play off the ball; he played more minutes with Walker last season (1,179) than as lead point guard (868). But Lin is still at his best running the high pick-and-roll with the floor spaced (OK, the latter is unlikely to happen in Brooklyn). He averaged 18.2 points and 5.4 assists per 36 minutes last season as a point guard, according to NBA.com/Stats, as compared to 14.5 and 3.2 playing with Walker.
Read our full analysis on Lin and every Nets player
Philadelphia 76ers
Proj. wins:?25.9
Last season:?10-72
5-on-5: What's your take on the injury to Ben Simmons?
Unfortunate, but not the end of the world. Obviously, you'd like to know how he fits on court with his teammates, particularly Joel Embiid. The nature of the injury is concerning, as you never want to have your bigs have foot issues (particularly this early in his career), but it's far too early to draw any concrete conclusions or hit any panic buttons. -- Amin Elhassan
Read our full 5-on-5 predictions for the 2016-17 76ers
Player spotlight: Jahlil Okafor
Offensively, Okafor did prove more versatile than expected. In part because of the 76ers' poor floor spacing, his 0.85 points per post-up ranked 11th among the 13 players who scored at least 250 points in the post, according to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats. But Okafor was more effective facing up slower defenders and beating them off the dribble using his quickness (0.87 points per isolation play). And he was surprisingly adept as a roll man in the pick-and-roll, averaging 1.02 points per play. One way or another, Okafor is going to get buckets with high-percentage shooting. The next steps for him are drawing more fouls -- especially after he improved to 68.6 percent at the free throw line -- and making plays as a passer. Okafor's 1.5 assists per 36 minutes was third lowest among regulars who averaged 20 points per 36 minutes.
Related Stories
ABC News Live