The 7 most overrated NBA free agents: Buyer beware
— -- NBA free agents are about to make a lot of money.
Which signings are most likely to be a mistake?
We have seven names that teams (and fans) should think twice about before committing to a massive deal.
Thanks to a historic 34 percent salary-cap increase next season, most teams have plenty of cash available to chase new talent this summer.
The conventional wisdom, of course, is that free agency is a seller's market -- teams typically overpay for the players they acquire. But the usual risk of overspending could be orders of magnitude greater this summer.
With so many teams, with so much money, bidding on so few high-quality players, we could witness a feeding frenzy of epic, unprecedented proportions. And these seven players are ones we think will not be worth it to the teams that spend for them.
We've found that the worst contracts are usually handed out to players who look good on paper -- with an impressive portfolio of box score stats -- but who still fail to make a large positive impact on the game. The major culprits: (a) inattention to defense and (b) a failure to do the "little things," like setting screens and boxing out opposing players. Those don't show up in most metrics.
The big advantage of real plus-minus (RPM) is that it tracks a player's impact on his team's overall offensive and defensive efficiency, regardless of his box score stats. It actually picks up on all of the "little things."
As such, we consider RPM particularly useful in identifying overrated free agents -- that is, the players whose bottom-line impact is not nearly as positive as their reputations would have us believe.
Not max-level talents
The first group consists of players who will probably be signed to a max contract, or at least something in that vicinity.
We're not saying these players are terrible, by any means. But we think teams will probably be disappointed in the end if they've handed these players max-level money, especially if the contracts run for several years.
Athletic shooting guards usually face steep productivity declines with advancing age. Kobe never had a great season after age 34. Neither did MJ (who turned 35 during his final championship season in 1998). Wade, who turned 34 this past January, has arguably fared even worse against the ravages of time.
Although Wade turned in pretty solid box score stats last season -- with per-game averages of 19.0 points, 5.5 free throws attempted, 4.6 assists and 4.1 boards -- even these headline numbers were Wade's worst since his rookie season. More telling: His 51.7 percent true shooting percentage (adjusted to reflect the differential value of 3-pointers and free throw attempts) fell well below the league average (54.1 percent) for the first time in his career.
Basically, D-Wade racked up points last season merely through volume shooting, not efficient offensive play.
Wade actually dropped far below his lofty career averages on nearly every conceivable metric -- traditional or advanced.
And for the first time in his career, the Miami legend was a net negative in RPM impact (-1.07). While his offensive RPM was still modestly positive (0.70), his abysmal defensive rating of -1.78 quantifies what the eye test already told us: Wade often coasted on defense, taking plays off (presumably) to conserve energy and reduce the wear and tear on his body.
Admittedly, the Heat guard did manage to turn back the clock -- shifting into playoff gear -- during the 14 games of Miami's 2016 postseason run. Even so, he still posted a subpar 53 percent true shooting percentage, along with a steals rate about 50 percent below his career playoff average.
Simply put: Wade is no longer an elite NBA player. According to RPM, he's not even a good NBA player -- at least not during the regular season. While he might be able to flash glimpses of vintage D-Wade in the playoffs, such limited production hardly merits the $20 million in salary he made last season.
And with even further decline expected this coming season, he'll come nowhere close to warranting the inflated contract he's about to secure in free agency this summer.
For most of this past season, Barnes was described in NBA circles as someone likely to command max money this summer.
Of course, his market value may have taken a hit after his disappearing act in the NBA Finals. With a championship on the line, Barnes shot a woeful 5-for-32 in Games 5, 6, and 7 combined, even as the Cavs repeatedly left him open and simply dared him to make plays. Suffice it to say that he came up short.
Barnes devotees will point to the fact that the 24-year-old is still young enough to see some improvement over the next couple of seasons. But we have a hard time identifying attributes that could make the former Tar Heel a max-level player. His 11.7 points per game certainly weren't anything to write home about. Neither were his subpar rates (per 36 minutes) of steals (0.7), assists (2.1) or blocks (0.2).
And while Barnes' 3-point production last season -- 38.3 percent accuracy on 214 long-range attempts -- gives the appearance of competence, a deeper dive suggests it might be a mirage. According to player tracking metrics on NBA.com, when Barnes launched 3s without being wide open (i.e., when there was a defender within six feet of him), he connected on a putrid 30.6 percent of his attempts.
Put Barnes on nearly any team besides Golden State -- that is, any team where open looks aren't the norm -- and he will almost certainly suffer a massive drop in shooting efficiency.
One of the few offensive metrics in which Barnes truly shines is his turnover rate, which was very low last season. Then again, he simply hasn't had to create much of his own offense on an elite Warriors team.
Yes, the Warriors outscored opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions with Barnes on the court last season. But he has shared ample court time with some of the best players in the league. When you have teammates such as Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson, it's nearly inevitable that you'll post an impressive raw plus-minus number.
That's one of the major reasons we developed the RPM metric -- to provide an estimate of player impact after adjusting for the strength of his teammates and opponents. The resulting adjustment in Barnes' case is sobering: He had an anemic RPM rating of -1.3 last season.
In fact, the Warriors didn't miss a beat whenever Barnes went to the bench. They were actually two points better in net efficiency without him. So if they have to pay him anywhere near the maximum salary to entice Barnes to stay next season and beyond, the Warriors will almost certainly have overpaid.
Kevin Pelton makes the case that the Los Angeles Lakers (and perhaps other teams) should gamble on Whiteside. Pelton lists the pros and cons of signing Whiteside, with good evidence on each side. For our money, though, the cons outweigh the pros.
Back in January, Whiteside joked that he was "just trying to get his NBA2K rating up." The truth, of course, is often told in jest, and Whiteside often played as if his top priority was beefing up his box score stats.
And he did put up some truly monstrous numbers -- including 4.6 blocks and 10.6 defensive boards per 36 minutes of play. Unfortunately, playing defense isn't just about blocking shots.
Sometimes -- especially for a 7-footer -- it's more effective just to stay in a solid defensive stance. When bigs are too eager to block shots, they end up biting on pump fakes and can actually make it easier for opponents to score. They also pick up lots of goaltending calls -- a category in which Whiteside nearly "led" the league.
The Miami Heat were actually worse defensively -- they allowed more points per possession -- with Whiteside on the floor last season. If we just look at his impressive block totals, Whiteside's on-off efficiency numbers with Miami make no sense.
But while Whiteside should be looking to emulate legendary bigs like Tim Duncan, who predicate every move on its ability to make the team better, he seems instead to have modeled his game after stat grubbers such as JaVale McGee.
Again, it's possible to put up huge numbers without actually helping the team all that much.
Consider: Whiteside is one of only nine players in the history of the NBA to dish out 30 or fewer assists in a season in which they played more than 2,000 minutes.
So, despite his gaudy numbers, Whiteside's lackluster predictive RPM value of 0.32 rates him as just a league-average player for his overall impact on the game. If he doesn't start playing fundamentally sound basketball next season -- an unlikely prospect, in our opinion -- his team will be left puzzling over their lackluster defense with Whiteside on the floor, and will end up realizing that Whiteside's new max contract was money poorly spent.
Howard recently opted out of his $23 million player option for the 2016-17 season. Apparently, he believes he can land another long-term max offer.
The problem is that Howard has declined significantly from his Orlando days, when he truly was among the NBA elite. Between 2010 and 2012, Howard was consistently a top-three player in real plus-minus impact. Last season, he didn't even crack the top 150, with an RPM value right at the league average of 0.0.
Howard's apex game was based on a freakish athleticism he no longer possesses. And although he's only 30 years old, Howard has already logged nearly 35,000 minutes in his 12 NBA seasons (and postseasons), which is a lot of career mileage for a 7-footer. Even worse: He has never looked the same since his herniated disc surgery four years ago.
In fact, D-12's scoring has steadily declined throughout the past five seasons, culminating in a pedestrian average of just 13.7 points per game last season. He actually set a career best in 2-point field goal percentage last season, but he's also getting fewer attempts than ever. He also set a career low (48.9 percent) from the free throw line, keeping him firmly entrenched among the league's worst in that department
And despite having blocked an impressive 2.9 shots per 36 minutes back in his prime, Dwight's block rate is now down to a ho-hum 1.8. He just led the league in goaltending calls despite his more earthbound game.
Judging from his most recent years of play -- and considering the typical aging curve of players on the wrong side of 30 -- Howard will likely continue his slow decline on his next contract. Perhaps for some team with a great pass-first point guard who could provide Howard with lots of easy looks inside, it might make sense to sign him to a short-term deal at a price considerably south of the max. Otherwise, it looks inevitable that D-12 is about to be vastly overpaid, especially near the end of any long-term deal.
DeRozan just put up 23.5 points per game for a Toronto team that fought the eventual NBA champion Cleveland Cavaliers to a respectable 4-2 outcome in the Eastern Conference finals. That sounds like a guy who's worthy of a max-level deal, right?
We think not.
DeRozan may be a volume scorer, but he's not a terribly efficient one. For example, it wasn't until his 15th game of the season before he finally posted a field goal percentage north of 50 percent for a single game. DeRozan also made a paltry 44 percent of his shots and 33 percent of his 3s last season. He was able to eke above the league average in true shooting percentage (55 percent) only due to his superior ability to get to the line (8.4 free throws attempted per game).
Despite his modest scoring efficiency, and thanks to a good turnover rate, DeRozan is an above-average offensive player, as suggested by his offensive RPM rating of 2.33 last season. That's not an elite number, but it's pretty good.
DeRozan's impact on the defensive end, however, is more problematic.
Although we're fond of pointing out the limitations of box score stats, in DeRozan's case, the defensive stats line up nicely with defensive RPM (and with the simple defensive on-off numbers). For starters, the Raptors defended better with DeRozan off the court, to the tune of 5.6 points per 100 possessions. That's consistent with his lackluster rate of steals, defensive rebounds and blocks for a wing player. It also helps us make sense of his woeful -2.47 defensive RPM impact.
Even on offense, the Raptors really didn't miss a beat when DeRozan sat. During the regular season and playoffs, the Raptors played about five points better per 100 possessions without DeRozan. That contrasts starkly, for example, with Kyle Lowry's plus-24 net on-off rating in the playoffs.
To us, it's obvious that DeRozan was not the main driver of the Raptors' success last season. As in the case of Golden State with(out) Barnes, we believe the Raptors will be just fine if they let DeRozan walk -- especially if the price of keeping him is a shiny new max contract.
Never a productive player
"Waiters Island" -- a mythical haven for fans of OKC's erratic shooting guard -- gained some new residents during his respectable 2016 postseason run. We even hear credible reports that Waiters could receive considerable interest as a restricted free agent this summer.
We regard such interest as largely misguided.
Simply put: Dion Waiters isn't very good.
Despite feasting on a buffet of wide-open looks last season as he played alongside Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, Waiters somehow managed to put up a horrific 49 percent true shooting percentage. That's a full five percentage points below the league average, and one of the worst marks among all NBA 2-guards.
Yes, Waiters drained his 3s at a decent 36 percent clip, but that number should be taken with a huge grain of salt, since a whopping 82 percent of his outside attempts were classified as "open" or "wide open" looks (per stats.nba.com data).
The 24-year-old guard also continued to struggle as the ball handler in OKC's pick-and-roll sets, generating a paltry 0.69 points per play in that role (according to synergy.com research). In fact, he has always been a below-average distributor at the 2-guard position, with an assist-to-turnover ratio (1.28) that ranked among the league's worst at his position among players who logged at least 2,000 minutes last season.
Defensively, Waiters certainly has the size and athleticism to hold his own against opposing guards. But his actual on-court defensive impact has been limited throughout his career by vexing lapses of focus. As a result, Waiters consistently posts below-average defensive RPM numbers. He clocked in with an uninspiring dRPM value of -1.64 last season.
While Waiters is still young enough to see continued improvement in play over the next few seasons, count us among the robust chorus of skeptics. On the basis of his track record, we believe that whichever team acquires his services next season will probably have overpaid for the privilege.
Here's what an NBA front office executive said about Green: "One guy that's always on the trading block is Green. Whoever just got him realizes how bad he really is and immediately tries to deal him."
Throughout his nine-year career, Green's teams have played better with him on the court only one time. It happened on last season's Memphis Grizzlies team -- a squad so depleted by injuries that they had to play 28 different players to make it through the season.
Green is a master of seeming more impactful than he really is. His box score numbers seem OK to the casual observer. It certainly wouldn't hurt if he assisted on more shots -- he has averaged only 1.9 assists per 36 minutes for his career -- but he also doesn't turn the ball over much. His shooting efficiency isn't great, but it isn't horrid, either. His steal and block numbers are decent for a small forward.
Yet there's something about Green that consistently makes his teams underperform whenever he's on the floor.
Put it this way: Green actually ranked in the bottom 10 out of more than 1,000 NBA players in our long-term adjusted plus-minus analyses (which evaluate player impact over the past 16 seasons).
Because the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, Green's toxic on-court impact is unlikely to improve much in future seasons -- especially as he begins next season on the wrong side of 30.
So we believe his true value will be significantly less than the $9.2 million he made last season, even after adjusting for the upcoming 34 percent spike in salary cap that's about to make a mockery of everything fans have ever believed about a player's "fair market value."
