Playoff odds: Green Bay's shot

Let's be honest, Patriots fans. New England has been in the No. 2 slot since we debuted this column, and closer to No. 3 than No. 1 all along. With that in mind -- and this may be cold comfort, considering the opportunity squandered on Sunday in Miami -- the Patriots' loss wasn't all that bad because the Bengals also lost, so New England's chances for the No. 2 seed actually increased from 43 percent to 46 percent. To boot, the Patriots have a 74 percent chance of sweeping their last two games, which is only slightly lower than the Bengals' 81 percent. And when it comes to the AFC East, New England is still an overwhelming favorite: They're a 97 percent favorite to win the division.

No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals

Current record: 9-5 | Weighted DVOA: 14.8 percent
Projected wins: 10.6
Total playoff odds: 93.8 percent | Weekly change: -5.6 percent

One of the biggest stories coming out of Week 15 is that the Bengals suddenly find themselves in a dogfight for the AFC North. Just last week, Cincinnati was a 97 percent favorite; now it's an 83 percent favorite. The good news is that both of the Bengals' remaining games are at home, including against the Ravens in Week 17. Even better news is that, with Cincinnati hosting Minnesota (1 p.m. ET) this week and Baltimore hosting New England (4:25 p.m. ET), our projection model says there's a 55 percent chance the Bengals will have clinched the division by 8 p.m. ET Sunday.

No. 4 Indianapolis Colts

Current record: 9-5 | Weighted DVOA: -4.8 percent
Projected wins: 9.9
Total playoff odds: 100.0 percent | Weekly change: +0.0 percent

Although they currently have the same record as Cincinnati, the Colts are virtually locked into the No. 4 seed (84.1 percent chance) because they lose a head-to-head tiebreaker and have a much tougher remaining schedule. According to our projection model, Indianapolis is a 19-to-1 underdog at Kansas City this weekend, while Cincinnati is a 19-to-1 favorite at home against Minnesota. Put those two odds together, and there's a 90 percent likelihood that the Colts will have nothing to play for in Week 17.

No. 5 Kansas City Chiefs

Current record: 11-3 | Weighted DVOA: 21.8 percent
Projected wins: 12.3
Total playoff odds: 100.0 percent | Weekly change: +0.0 percent

After Week 13, the Chiefs' likelihood of earning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs was a mere 2 percent; it's now 24 percent. Although that means Kansas City's still a 3-to-1 underdog, it nevertheless makes them Denver's No. 1 contender and twice as likely as New England to overtake the Broncos for the top spot. Both Kansas City and Denver are better than 90 percent favorites this weekend, so the battle for home field will likely come down to a pair of West Coast games in Week 17. The Chiefs will need to win as a slight favorite in San Diego (53 percent) and hope the Broncos lose as a huge favorite in Oakland (93 percent).

No. 6 Miami Dolphins

Current record: 8-6 | Weighted DVOA: -0.8 percent
Projected wins: 9.1
Total playoff odds: 62.1 percent | Weekly change: +9.2 percent

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