Ranking Chris Paul's best choices as a free agent

— -- If Chris Paul wants the best chance of competing with the Golden State Warriors next season and beyond, where should he sign as a free agent this summer?

ESPN reported on Friday that Paul and teammate Blake Griffin have notified the LA Clippers that they plan to decline their 2017-18 player options and become unrestricted free agents. That doesn't necessarily mean they intend to leave -- they can make far more money next season simply by re-signing with the Clippers as free agents -- but it gives Paul the opportunity to look around.

I've already taken a look at how the San Antonio Spurs could make room for Paul and how they might project with him at point guard. Now, with the Houston Rockets reportedly planning a run at Paul, let's run through the same exercise with the Rockets and project how the Clippers might look with and without Blake Griffin.

CP3 and the team that loves 3s

Like the Spurs, Houston has a complicated path to clearing enough cap space to make Paul a max offer. That has never deterred Rockets GM Daryl Morey. Houston has reportedly explored trading guard Patrick Beverley and forward Ryan Anderson to create additional room.

If the Rockets deal Anderson and Beverley without taking any salary back, waive non-guaranteed Isaiah Taylor and Kyle Wiltjer?and renounce their free agents, they'd get to a little shy of $34 million in cap space, based on the league's current $99 million cap projection. That would be within shouting distance of Paul's projected $34.7 million max salary. (Trading Lou Williams instead of Beverley would likely get Houston all the way there.)

Although the Rockets would still have the $4.2 million room midlevel exception to try to add frontcourt depth, those moves would give them a guard-heavy rotation that looks like this:

Based on 2017-18 projections for ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), this version of the Rockets would be about average on defense (as last season) and predictably elite on offense. Those ratings translate to a projection of 55 wins, which might not sound like much, given that Houston won the same number of games in 2016-17. However, remember that these projections are designed to be conservative, so no team besides Golden State was projected for more than 54 wins in 2016-17.

The Rockets would also have the opportunity to improve as they continue to fill out their roster. Regardless, they wouldn't likely be able to match the 62 wins forecast for the Spurs with Paul.

The question is whether Houston might match up better with the Warriors in the playoffs. Paul would be a good matchup for Stephen Curry at point guard, and Trevor Ariza is capable of defending Kevin Durant, with James Harden presumably hiding on Golden State's weakest offensive threat. Still, the Rockets are one capable defender short of an ideal fivesome to face the Warriors in crunch time.

What if Paul re-signs with the Clippers?

Now it's time to compare the alternatives to the status quo: Paul returning to the Clippers, the only team that can offer him a five-year contract worth an estimated $43 million annually.

If both Paul and Griffin come back, the Clippers will probably have a relatively quiet summer. Although shooting guard J.J. Redick is also an unrestricted free agent and doesn't seem likely to return, the Clippers could bring back most of their other free agents and have a roster similar to last season's. Pending their adding another shooting guard with their $5 million taxpayer mid-level exception, here's how that roster would project.

Amazingly, with weak offensive players picking up so many of the minutes played by Redick (plus-0.8 offensive rating), the Clippers would project much better on defense than on offense with a similar group minus Redick. Overall, RPM would forecast around 47 wins, four fewer than last season, which was already the lowest total for the Clippers since the lockout-shortened 2011-12 campaign. Based on that, it's easy to see why Paul might consider a move, despite the financial benefits to re-signing.

What if Griffin leaves?

Things get worse if Griffin decides to leave. Because of Paul's maximum cap hold, the Clippers would need to make trades to clear any appreciable cap space, even without Griffin on the books. Most likely, they would have to try to replace him using the $8.2 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception. (Both Griffin and Redick leaving would likely take the Clippers out of the luxury tax.)

It's tough to say how such a team might look, but before adding a replacement power forward, RPM's baseline projection would be 43 wins and an offense 1.4 points per 100 possessions worse than league average.

Although painful in the short term, Griffin's departure would potentially allow for a fascinating summer of 2018. Assuming DeAndre Jordan, as expected, declines his $24.1 million 2018-19 player option, the Clippers could clear about $35 million in cap space by waiving Jamal Crawford and stretching the $3 million guaranteed portion of his salary -- enough to offer LeBron James a max contract.

If Wesley Johnson ($6.1 million) and Austin Rivers ($12.7 million) pick up their player options, the Clippers could potentially package them, Brice Johnson and their 2018 first-round pick to the New York Knicks for Carmelo Anthony if Anthony waives his 15 percent trade bonus. That would put the Clippers?three-quarters of the way to the Banana Boat team, with Dwyane Wade an unrestricted free agent who could sign for their $4.3 million room midlevel exception.

Granted, in this hypothetical, every other player on the roster would have to make the league minimum, but the Clippers could give the aging stars a chance to play together in a big market with warm weather.

Ranking the outcomes

If Paul's decision comes down solely to the ability to compete for a championship next season, I'd rank the Spurs as the top pick, with the Rockets as an alternative, followed by the Clippers.

But more than that will go into where Paul signs, however, including money and quality of life. And in basketball terms, going to Houston would mean deciding he'd be happy sharing lead ballhandling duties with James Harden, just as he has to factor in how he feels about joining an established team in San Antonio or staying with the Clippers for another run.

Additionally, if Paul looks ahead to 2018-19, the Clippers surely offer him the best chance to eventually team up with his close friend LeBron James. Those are all factors Paul will have to weigh as he decides where to sign this summer.