Is the Raptors' offense historically great like the Warriors'?
— -- The Golden State Warriors might have the best offense in NBA history, as I wrote last week. Over the last 10 games, however, the Warriors haven't even been the best offense in the NBA this season. That honor belongs to the Toronto Raptors, who have put together an elite offense without the kind of MVP-caliber talent Golden State possesses.
How have the Raptors done it? And, heading into a showdown tonight with the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers, can they keep it up?
Toronto surging on offense
Over the last 10 games, the Raptors and Warriors have separated themselves from the rest of the league on offense, scoring at historic rates per 100 possessions.
As with Golden State, Toronto's season-long offensive rating would be better than the best since the NBA began tracking team turnovers in 1973-74 (112.7 by the 2009-10 Phoenix Suns). And intriguingly, Basketball-Reference.com's schedule-adjusted ratings suggest the Raptors have actually been better than the Warriors once we consider the defenses the two teams have faced.
Such strong starts aren't completely out of the ordinary, and while the Warriors were expected to threaten records on offense with their talent, the Raptors don't have the same pedigree. But maybe we need to start rethinking that.
Since the beginning of the 2014-15 season, Toronto has scored as efficiently as any team outside the Bay Area. The L.A. Clippers are a hair ahead of the Raptors in offensive rating, but the Drakes have outscored the Cavaliers, the San Antonio Spurs and everyone else.
Toronto offense doesn't need elite shooting
The Raptors have achieved strong offensive results with a different formula than their peers. Led by the Warriors, according to Basketball-Reference.com the other four top teams in offensive rating since 2014-15 also rank Nos. 1-4 in shooting, as measured by effective field goal percentage (eFG), the most important of Dean Oliver's four factors of offense. Toronto ranks eighth, behind five teams that have scored less efficiently per possession. The Raptors rank 14th over that span in 3-point attempts and eighth in makes.
To compensate for the relative lack of outside shooting, Toronto has relied on offensive balance. The Raptors rank in the top 10 in all four factors since 2014-15, the only team that can make that claim. In fact, Toronto and Cleveland are the lone two teams that rank in the top 19 in all four factors.
While the Raptors don't shoot nearly as well as Golden State, they rank ahead of the Warriors in all three other facets of offense.
In particular, Toronto excels in the subtle areas of getting to the free throw line -- only the Minnesota Timberwolves have been better since 2014-15 -- and taking care of the basketball. Add in the team's offensive rebounding, and the Raptors tend to get far more opportunities to score than their opponents.
Toronto averages .982 "true shot attempts" -- field goals plus trips to the free throw line -- per possession this season, which ranks third in the NBA behind the Chicago Bulls (1.003) and the Miami Heat (.986). The Warriors, by contrast, rank 26th in this category at .942.
Raptors excel when they do shoot well
We've buried the lede a little bit here. While Toronto hasn't shot as well as the NBA's other best offenses over the last three seasons, that hasn't been the case early this year. The Raptors are making 38.9 percent of their 3-point attempts, which trails only San Antonio, and are fourth in 2-point percentage (51.5 percent). Add such accurate shooting to the rest of Toronto's balanced offense, and the result is efficiency that threatens Golden State's place atop the league.
DeRozan's outburst helped keep the Raptors afloat while the rest of the team was struggling to shoot. In particular, fellow All-Star guard Kyle Lowry (31.0 percent) and sixth man Patrick Patterson (22.2 percent) were misfiring beyond the arc.
Since then, they've not only regressed to the mean (in a positive way), but outperformed what's expected. Lowry has shot an incredible 53.7 percent on 3s over the last 10 games, Patterson 48.9 percent -- and DeMarre Carroll and Terrence Ross are also hitting better than 40 percent on four-plus 3s per game. As a team, Toronto is shooting 46.2 percent from 3-point range the last 10 games.
Still, the Raptors' overall 3-point shooting (38.9 percent) isn't dramatically ahead of last year's pace (37.0). Instead, it's the team's accuracy inside the arc that's more likely to decline. Led by DeRozan, Toronto is making 42.3 percent of its 2-point attempts outside the paint, per NBA.com/Stats. Last year, even with DeRozan's accuracy from this range, the Raptors shot just 37.7 percent, the league's fifth-lowest mark.
The Raptors will hope to counter any drop-off with improved production from their starting power forward spot. Jared Sullinger's foot surgery forced rookie Pascal Siakam into a starting role, and as Zach Lowe recently detailed, opponents haven't respected Siakam as a threat away from the basket.
With Siakam on the court, Toronto has scored 2.1 fewer points per 100 possessions than any other regular,? per NBA.com/Stats. While he'll be forced to play away from the basket more than is ideal, Sullinger is skilled enough to keep the Raptors from playing four-on-five on offense, which should make their starting five more dangerous.
Even with Sullinger's return, odds are Toronto will fall off its current pace. This probably isn't one of the greatest offenses in NBA history. But the Raptors have proven they belong among the league's best contemporary attacks.
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