UFC 169 preview and breakdown

Jose Aldo (23-1) versus Ricardo Lamas (13-2), featherweight title fight

  • Odds: Aldo -600; Lamas +450

Breakdown: Nicknames don't always describe a fighter's style, but in Lamas' case, "the bully" fits.

One undeniable thing about him: He's a shark if there's blood in the water. Some guys just naturally react well when an opponent's hurt and Lamas is one of them. He recognizes it and opens up, but stays under control.

He's going to have the same problem that everyone has with Aldo -- dealing with the speed. Lamas has a functional jab and mixes things well but true to his nickname, he's best when in the face of an opponent. He's not as strong when backing up.

And Aldo will force Lamas to back up. Aldo will force a charging wild animal to back up.

The best way to deal with Aldo's stand-up is to put him on his back, which surely Lamas will try. He's a former collegiate wrestler who has transitioned his takedowns well for MMA, but driving under Aldo's center of gravity is dangerous work.

Prediction: I've underestimated Lamas before, but this is a different animal he's taking on in Newark. I see Aldo delivering his closing statements at 145 pounds and announcing a move to lightweight. SECOND ROUND TKO, ALDO.

Fight of the night pick: Abel Trujillo versus Jamie Varner

Knockout of the night pick: Alistair Overeem versus Frank Mir

Who to watch: Ali Bagautinov. John Lineker is likely coming to brawl and we'll see how Bagautinov handles it. He has been impressive in a 2-0 UFC start.

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