With Tate possessing a very subpar 20 percent takedown defense (a surprising stat considering "Takedown" Tate is known for her wrestling background), the probability of her being able to stay on her feet against Rousey given the aforementioned monstrous numbers is highly unlikely. In their first fight, Rousey was 3-for-3 in takedown attempts.
The only real chance Tate has to defeat Rousey is by successfully landing a submission, given that she'll likely find herself on the ground. And it isn't completely out of the question, as Tate averages 2.31 submissions per 15 minutes and has gained nearly half of her victories (six of 13) by submission. However, this would be quite a feat, as only one of Rousey's opponents, Liz Carmouche, has even attempted a submission on Rousey, and even that was a very rare move -- a standing rear naked choke attempt. With the chance of Tate attempting a submission on the ground against Rousey very low, and with Tate likely finding herself on her back very quickly as she did in the first fight, it seems the gigantic money line is warranted. With value on neither side of the fight, consider this one a stay away at minus-800.
Insider value pick: Stay away
Barnett will face a much more difficult challenge than he has in the recent past. Barnett's resurgence has been the driving force behind his considerable minus-190 favorite status in this fight, but there are many reasons to believe the outcome will be much closer than the line would indicate.