Week 13 NFL Playoff Odds

On Football Outsiders' playoff odds page, we list the probability of each AFC team winning each of the six playoff seeds. That's 96 values, and the Chiefs' 78.4 percent chance of earning the No. 5 seed is the highest of them all. They might still have a 20.9 percent chance of winning the division according to our simulations, but losing to a below-average Chargers team didn't exactly inspire confidence. Further, although most of that division-winning probability is wrapped up in beating Denver at home this week, Kansas City's pass rush has gone M.I.A. just as it's about to face a quarterback who ranks third all time in sack rate.

No. 6 - Pittsburgh Steelers

Current record: 5-6 | Weighted DVOA: 3.4 percent
Projected wins: 7.9
Total playoff odds: 38.0 percent | Weekly change: +18.3 percent

Thanks to a three-game winning streak, the Steelers have seen their playoff odds increase six-fold over the past two weeks (from 6.8 percent after Week 10), which is good enough to vault them into the final AFC playoff spot in our simulations. At 28.4 percent, however, it's nowhere near a stranglehold. What gives Pittsburgh a slight edge right now is that it's the only team with a positive weighted DVOA among the six vying for the No. 6 seed. What makes the Steelers' edge tenuous is that, while our simulations view them as a projected favorite in three of their final five games, they view San Diego as a favorite in four games.


In the hunt

Tennessee Titans | 5-6 | Total playoff odds: 16.7 percent
Baltimore Ravens | 5-6 | Total playoff odds: 15.9 percent
San Diego Chargers | 5-6 | Total playoff odds: 13.3 percent
New York Jets | 5-6 | Total playoff odds: 12.4 percent
Miami Dolphins | 5-6 | Total playoff odds: 9.4 percent

Last week, we wrote that the Jets were still very much alive -- unless they lost to Baltimore. Naturally, they went out and lost to Baltimore. Except for a Week 15 game at Carolina, New York's remaining schedule is quite friendly (minus-14.4 percent weighted DVOA average opponent). Unfortunately, losing to the Ravens means that schedule is unlikely to matter: The Jets now lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Tennessee.


NFC playoff projections

No. 1 - Seattle Seahawks 

Current record: 10-1 | Weighted DVOA: 37.6 percent
Projected wins: 13.5
Total playoff odds: 100.0 percent | Weekly change: +0.1 percent

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